It's true that being overweight or obese is a leading risk factor for developing Type 2 diabetes.

But attention, skinny and normal-weight people: You may be vulnerable, too.

Lots of lifestyle choices influence the risk of diabetes: everything from whether you smoke to how much you exercise (or don't). It turns out, what you choose to drink is also a risk factor.

A new study published in the British Medical Journal finds that people in the habit of drinking one sugar-sweetened beverage — such as a soda or sweetened tea — every day had an 18 percent increased risk of developing the disease over a decade. That's compared with people who steer clear of sugary beverages.

The researchers reached this estimate by pooling data from 17 previously published studies that had evaluated the link between sugary drinks and diabetes risk.

And here's what upends conventional thinking: After the researchers adjusted their estimates for body weight, they found that — even for thin or normal-weight people — one sugary drink per day was associated with a 13 percent increased risk.

"So even if people are lean, if they continue consuming sugar-sweetened beverages, they have a greater likelihood of developing Type 2 diabetes," study author Fumiaki Imamura, of the University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, told us.

The studies he looked at were observational, so they can't prove cause and effect. But the link between sugary drinks and diabetes is solid, since researchers say they understand the biological mechanisms of how too much sugar can overwork the endocrine system.

As we've reported, big soda companies including Coca-Cola and Pepsi have agreed to market more water and low-calorie beverages. And they've pledged to cut back on portions, too.

But it's not clear that making a switch to diet drinks leads to any advantage.

The new BMJ study also points toward an association between artificially sweetened drinks and a higher risk of diabetes, as well as fruit juices, but the evidence wasn't strong enough to make a solid conclusion. The authors say that these drinks "seemed not to be healthy options for the prevention of Type 2 diabetes."

This is not the first study to come to point to the "diet-soda paradox." As we've reported, the San Antonio Heart Study found a significant link between diet soda consumption and weight gain over time.

It's tricky to unravel. "People gaining excessive weight might switch to diet drinks and still get diabetes because of their other risk factors," explains David Ludwig, director of the New Balance Foundation Obesity Prevention Center at Boston Children's Hospital.

The researchers who published the paper estimate that, if Americans gave up their daily sugary drink habit, 2 million cases of diabetes could be prevented by 2020 — "so potentially, millions of cases of diabetes [prevented] as the result of this one behavior," Ludwig says.

It's something to consider the next time you feel thirsty.

The soda industry responded to the findings of the BMJ paper with a statement saying:

"The authors of this study acknowledge their findings do not show drinking beverages of any type causes chronic disease. Even so, our industry is committed to being part of real solutions to public health challenges."

Copyright 2015 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Transcript

MELISSA BLOCK, HOST:

As the number of Americans with Type 2 diabetes has soared, so too has the idea that being overweight or obese is the path to developing the disease. But normal weight people may be at risk too. A new study in the British Medical Journal shows one habit in particular can increase the risk. Here's NPR's Allison Aubrey.

ALLISON AUBREY, BYLINE: Lots of factors contribute to the development of Type 2 diabetes - your genes, your weight, whether you smoke or exercise and, it turns out, how often you choose sugary drinks. At the Union Station food court in Washington, D.C., Betty Hoff (ph) and her daughter Ashley (ph) are filling up their large soda cups.

AUBREY: What are you drinking there today?

BETTY HOFF: Coke.

AUBREY: Is this a daily habit? Is this something you do once a day?

B. HOFF: Yes. I drink it more than once a day, and it quenches my thirst.

AUBREY: But it may also drive up her risk of Type 2 diabetes. A new study from researchers at the University of Cambridge estimates that drinking one sugary drink every day increases the risk of getting the disease by about 18 percent over a decade compared to people who don't drink sugary drinks. Two drinks per day bumps the risk up even higher.

DAVID LUDWIG: This study provides the most precise estimates of the actual risks involved.

AUBREY: That's David Ludwig, an obesity expert at Boston Children's Hospital. He was not involved in the new study, but he says what's interesting about the findings is that though the diabetes risk is highest for overweight people, the study shows that even normal weight and lean people who have a sugary drink habit are vulnerable too.

LUDWIG: So this suggests that at any given weight, drinking sugary beverages is going to kick up the risk of getting diabetes.

AUBREY: The more you drink, the higher the risk, so consider teenager Ashley Hoff's daily soda habit.

ASHLEY HOFF: I drink about three or four - one with dinner, one with lunch.

AUBREY: She's not obese, but her habit is risky. The researchers estimate that if Americans with a habit like Ashley's gave up sugary drinks, 2 million cases of diabetes could be prevented over the next ten years.

LUDWIG: So potentially millions of cases of diabetes as a result of this one behavior.

AUBREY: May be something to ponder the next time you feel thirsty. Allison Aubrey, NPR news. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

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