Who Not To Take Selfies With When Running For Senate

In politics, it's not what you know but who you know. And who you know can hurt you.

Try this little test: Get a picture in your mind of U.S. Senator Kay Hagan. Is it is positive image or a negative one? Now, with that image in mind, imagine her next to President Obama. Does your opinion of her change? For many people, the answer is yes. That's why you see her opponent, Thom Tillis, so often showing pictures her next to the president.

But what about Tillis – is there someone that he can be pictured with that would have the same effect? The answer to that, too, is yes. If you're like some people, your vision of him diminished if he's pictured alongside North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory.

According to a recent Elon University poll, the candidates are more popular on their own than when paired with some unpopular members of their own party. Jason Husser, an assistant director of the Elon poll, says the effect is strong enough to cross party lines.

"Even Democrats like Hagan less when they see Obama," he says. "Even Republicans like Tillis less when they see McCrory."

Husser says the negative Obama effect is about twice the size of the McCrory effect. "McCrory is bad for Tillis. Obama is terrible for Hagan," he says. 

The Elon poll found some results that many political observers might find counterintuitive. Ballot positioning is one example. Traditionally, candidates fight to appear first on the ballot. But the poll finds both candidates got a 6-point boost when their name appeared not first, but second. That could help Hagan, who appears after Tillis.

Also, the poll found that Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh could have an effect on the race. But again, contrary to conventional thinking, the effect is more likely to benefit Tillis than Hagan. Husser says that could be because Haugh has some liberal ideas that could appeal to voters who would otherwise support Hagan.