Five Takeaways From A Dramatic North Carolina Primary

After a slew of high-profile campaign stops and seemingly endless ads, North Carolina's 2020 primary election is in the books. Here are some of the takeaways:

You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet

After an advertising assault on our airways and mailboxes, expect a somewhat quiet period while the rest of the primaries play out. But come the fall, it's going to ramp up big time. North Carolina is a purple state with 15 electoral votes. And we're one of the few states with a presidential, senate, and gubernatorial race on tap. On top of all that, the Republican Convention in Charlotte will bring the spotlight here. We're going to get a lot of attention, and a lot of advertising money.

Coattails Matter

That may be most true for the U.S. Senate race, which pits incumbent Republican Thom Tillis against Democrat Cal Cunningham. Tillis is underwater on his approval rating and isn't popular among non-GOP voters. He really needs President Trump to drive turnout in the Tar Heel state. If he does, Tillis has a good but not guaranteed shot at re-election. Former Gov. Pat McCrory was in much the same position in 2016 and lost. Barring a major change to the race, it's hard to picture a scenario where Trump loses the state but Tillis still wins.

Party Unity

Yes, there are some GOP “Never Trumpers,” but for the most part, the party is unified behind the president. The question is whether Democrats will similarly back their eventual nominee. The primary has exposed a split in the party between moderates — who ruled the evening Tuesday — and more progressive members seeking immediate change. If that split causes a big group of voters to stay home on Election Day, that could be a problem for Democrats.

You're Getting A New Congress Member, And You're Getting A New Congress Member…

Regardless of who prevails in November, redistricting has altered the Triad's congressional boundaries and many people will be getting new representation. The 5th District, which has historically included at least parts of Forsyth, has shifted away to the west. The district that gave us Wilmer “Vinegar Bend” Mizell, Steve Neal, and Richard Burr no longer includes Forsyth or any of its bordering counties. Some of those voters are now in the 10th District, where longtime Congressman Patrick McHenry (R) is the incumbent. Most Winston-Salem and all Guilford voters will be choosing between Democrat Kathy Manning and Republican Lee Haywood in the new Democratic-leaning 6th District. And the 13th District, where Republican Ted Budd is the incumbent, now snakes around Guilford County to the east.

I'm Sorry, Have We Met?

The weird thing about Joe Biden's strong showing — he won in a landslide over runner-up Bernie Sanders — is that he barely had a presence in North Carolina. Mike Bloomberg spent enough money to buy Krystal burgers for the entire state, only to come in third. Biden, by contrast, spent very little and good luck finding recent pics of him chomping barbecue on the campaign trail anywhere near Lexington. For the most part, he left that work to surrogates. Other candidates did make stops here — Sanders was just in Winston-Salem last week, and Amy Klobuchar was in Greensboro the same day. Instead, Biden was able to capitalize on a campaign that rapidly changed in the days leading up to Super Tuesday after moderate candidates dropped out and rallied behind him.