The General Assembly's proposed new congressional map shifts 10 eastern North Carolina counties between districts in an attempt to secure an 11th safe U.S. House seat for Republicans.
Earlier this week, Republican leaders in the General Assembly said they would embark on a redistricting effort with the intention of making another seat safe for their party. Under the current map, there are 10 safe Republican seats, three safe Democratic seats and one swing district.
How are districts changing?
As expected, mapmakers targeted that swing district, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District. Democrat Don Davis has won it in two consecutive cycles.
They did that by moving Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde and Pamlico counties from the Third District to the First District.
In return, Greene, Lenoir, Wayne and Wilson counties went from the First District to the Third District.
That means that Davis' Greene County home is now drawn into the district represented by Rep. Greg Murphy, a Republican. It also means that Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, a Republican who earlier this month announced his intention to seek the party's nomination in NC-1, now lives in NC-3.
Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson and State Sen. Bobby Hanig, R-Currituck, have also announced they plan to run in the Republican primary for NC-1.
Under the U.S. Constitution, someone seeking a seat in Congress must reside in the state where that district is located, but not necessarily in that district.
Davis posted a statement to X on Thursday evening, saying, "Families across (eastern NC) are struggling and feel that Washington, D.C., is broken. I understand these concerns all too well. As we look at new congressional districts, I am considering every option, drawing on my local roots, experience in the military, and commitment to education."
The new versions of the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts both opted for the Republican candidate in all but one statewide race in 2024 and 2022. Last year's governor race was the lone exception, with Josh Stein defeating the troubled campaign of Mark Robinson.
The changes move the 1st Congressional District from one that narrowly voted for Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential Election (50.13% to 48.86%) to one that favored Republican candidate Donald Trump by more than seven points in the same race (53.05% to 45.76%).
At the same time, Republicans continue to hold a strong advantage in the 3rd Congressional District, which Murphy won with 77% of the vote in November. His only opposition was Gheorghe Cormos, a member of the Libertarian Party.
In the 2020 presidential election, a majority of voters in both versions of the Third District voted for Trump. That would decline from 57.86% under the current district to 53.46% under the proposed version.
Why are the districts changing?
Legislative Republicans have been clear: They want a new Republican district to help enact President Donald Trump's agenda.
Republicans currently hold a 220 to 215 advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives (three of those seats are currently vacant, including one won by a Republican and two won by Democrats).
Traditionally, the party that holds the White House loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. To prevent that, Trump Administration officials nationwide are pushing Republican lawmakers to draw maps that help create safe seats for the party.
The North Carolina redistricting is playing out after Texas redrew its own congressional map to add five seats that favor Republicans. California responded to that by putting a referendum on the ballot next month that, if approved, would alter its own map to add five seats that favor Democrats.
Missouri has also redrawn its map to add a safe Republican seat, while Trump Administration officials are pressuring Indiana lawmakers to redraw their maps to add two seats.
Sen. Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell, said California moving to add safe Democratic seats was the impetus for North Carolina to act.
"The biggest push was when California decided that it was going to move for political partisans to pick up to try to control the predominance of the House, and it is our responsibility to respond to that movement," Hise, the Senate Redistricting Committee chairman, said in an interview.
By openly stating that they are redrawing the map with partisanship in mind, North Carolina Republicans could be preemptively crafting legal defenses to the new maps, Chris Cooper, the director of Western Carolina University's Haire Institute for Public Policy, said in an interview.
State and federal courts have in recent years shown that they cannot overturn maps because of their partisan makeup. They can, however, do so if the map dilutes the power of racial minority voting blocs.
Legislators' defense to an almost-inevitable lawsuit could sound like this, Cooper said: "We told you what we're going to do. We're going to get Donald Trump another Republican district. The fact that this happens to be a district with a large proportion of African-Americans is not the point."
What comes next?
Legislative leaders have said they intend to approve the new map when the General Assembly returns for a scheduled session next week.
Under North Carolina law, a redistricting proposal must only receive a majority of votes in the House and the Senate to become law. Republicans hold wide majorities in both chambers.
Gov. Josh Stein, a Democrat, does not have the power to veto the new map.
The changes to the First and Third districts appear to be the only differences between the proposed map and the one that is currently in use.
