Countries are gathering in Brazil at the COP30 summit to take stock of climate change. As in past summits, the negotiations are starting on the back foot: countries already aren't meeting their goals to cut heat-trapping emissions from burning fossil fuels.
The world has barely budged in its efforts to combat climate change compared to one year ago, according to a new report from the United Nations. If countries stay on that track, the planet will warm by about 5 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, compared to the pre-industrial temperatures of the mid-1800s. That's slightly better than projections made last year, which showed 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit of warming – but much of that progress could soon be cancelled out by the U.S.
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The Trump Administration is not sending any high-level officials to the COP30 talks, according to a statement from the White House. On President Trump's first day in office, he announced he would pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, the landmark deal made in 2015 among the world's nations to combat climate change. The U.S. had been instrumental in negotiating that agreement, which seeks to limit warming by 2100 to a key threshold: 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
Beyond that level of warming, scientific research shows climate change impacts become dramatically more damaging. Storms will produce more extreme rainfall, causing more dangerous flooding. Hurricanes get more intense. Heat waves reach more dangerous temperatures. Vulnerable ecosystems, like coral reefs, stand little chance at surviving.
The world is very likely to hit 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next decade, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. To stop the planet from getting even hotter by the end of the century, emissions would need to fall 55% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels. If countries follow through on their current pledges to cut emissions, they'd only fall 12% by 2035.
In the U.S., emissions from burning fossil fuels have declined recently, as aging coal power plants have closed and more solar and wind power has been installed. Renewable power projects are now cheaper than new fossil fuel power plants.
President Trump has called climate change a hoax. His administration now seeks to boost fossil fuels, rolling back tax credits for solar energy and cancelling offshore wind power projects. One study found that such measures will slow U.S. emissions cuts, which were expected to fall 38-56% by 2035, but now may only decline by 26-35%.
"I'm telling you that if you don't get away from the green energy scam, your country is going to fail," Trump told world leaders at the United National General Assembly in September.
Worldwide, renewable energy is growing rapidly, with China leading on production and manufacturing of renewable energy technology. More than 90% of new energy projects installed globally in 2024 were renewable. Energy experts say those economic forces will continue the expansion of clean energy, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But without stronger moves by governments to reduce fossil fuel use, those declines may still not be fast enough.
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