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Researchers Lower Projected NC COVID-19 Death Toll, Say Social Distancing Is Working

Health care workers gather specimen collection kits. (AP Photo/Mic Smith)

Researchers have lowered a projected COVID-19 death toll for North Carolina, and say this could be an indication that the state's social distancing guidelines may be working.

Researchers at the University of Washington say the coronavirus outbreak in North Carolina will likely peak next week with far fewer deaths than originally projected.

The study group now predicts that about 500 people in the state will die from COVID-19. That figure was closer to 2,400 just a week and a half ago.

The researchers say they now have more accurate information on how social distancing has impacted death rates in Italy and Spain, which has allowed them to refine their projections for North Carolina.

According to the News & Observer, the study also suggests North Carolina has a sufficient number of hospital beds to handle a surge in coronavirus patients.

Dr. Mandy Cohen is the Secretary of the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services.

She warns that there are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to how the coronavirus pandemic will play out. DHHS models show the need for hospital beds will peak in mid-to-late May, a full month after the University of Washington projections.

For the most up-to-date information on coronavirus in North Carolina, visit our Live Updates blog here. WFDD wants to hear your stories — connect with us and let us know what you're experiencing.

Neal Charnoff joined 88.5 WFDD as Morning Edition host in 2014. Raised in the Catskill region of upstate New York, he graduated from Sarah Lawrence College in 1983. Armed with a liberal arts degree, Neal was fully equipped to be a waiter. So he prolonged his arrested development bouncing around New York and L.A. until discovering that people enjoyed listening to his voice on the radio. After a few years doing overnight shifts at a local rock station, Neal spent most of his career at Vermont Public Radio. He began as host of a nightly jazz program, where he was proud to interview many of his idols, including Dave Brubeck and Sonny Rollins. Neal graduated to the news department, where he was the local host for NPR's All Things Considered for 14 years. In addition to news interviews and features, he originated and produced the Weekly Conversation On The Arts, as well as VPR Backstage, which profiled theater productions around the state. He contributed several stories to NPR, including coverage of a devastating ice storm. Neal now sees the value of that liberal arts degree, and approaches life with the knowledge that all subjects and all art forms are connected to each other. Neal and his wife Judy are enjoying exploring North Carolina and points south. They would both be happy to never experience a Vermont winter again.

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