Democrats across the country are optimistic that November’s election could be a wave year for their party. In North Carolina, experts say it’s possible a big shift could create a Democratic majority in at least one chamber of the legislature for the first time in 16 years.
Democrats’ potential path to flipping the House includes candidates like Elma Hairston, the Democratic candidate for a Guilford County House seat that was drawn to favor Republicans. In 2024, Republican Rep. Alan Branson won with 54% of the vote.
Hairston thinks she can beat the odds and win, and she compares her race to the election in Europe that ousted Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
“A month or so ago, Hungary did the unthinkable – they turned gerrymandering on its head by virtue of the voter turnout,” she said.
Hairston, a motivational speaker and former president of the High Point NAACP, says she’s hearing the same affordability concerns as she knocks on doors across the district. It spans from urban areas of High Point to rural communities like Climax and Browns Summit.
“That's probably a sideways horseshoe turf,” she told WUNC News. “It's huge, but baby, I'm out there and I'm all over it.”
In a normal election year, Hairston’s campaign would be considered a long shot for Democrats. But polling and election results across the country indicate that light-red districts like this one could be in play, particularly if President Donald Trump's approval ratings remain low and former Gov. Roy Cooper maintains a lead in the U.S. Senate race.
And there are enough state House districts in that category that could help Democrats win a net gain of 12 seats to take a majority. Andy Jackson analyzes election data for the conservative John Locke Foundation and produces its Civitas Partisan Index.
It rates five House seats currently held by Republicans as “toss-ups” and 15 seats as “lean Republican.”
“If Democrats catch a couple of breaks, I definitely could see them taking the majority,” Jackson told WUNC. “I think any thought of Republicans retaining the supermajority, I think that's out. I don't see that anywhere near happening.”
Democrats have struggled in recent years to uphold the governor's vetoes. Republicans in the House are currently one vote short of the 72 seats needed to easily override vetoes, but that close margin has allowed them to override with help from legislators elected as Democrats.
Jackson says the House map includes a lot of suburban districts that have added population – and more left-leaning voters – since the last round of redistricting. Combine that with expected low turnout for Republicans, and you could see defeats for GOP incumbents.
“Trump voters tend to be a lot less reliable when Trump is not on the ballot himself, and so these Trump midterms have been rough for Republicans and special elections as well, so I'm expecting that to continue,” Jackson said.
Democrats have recruited candidates in nearly every legislative district. Rep. Cynthia Ball, D-Wake, is the deputy leader of the House Democratic Caucus, and she’s bullish on her party’s chances in legislative races.
“We are cautiously optimistic, is how I would put it,” she said. “That would mean all the things would have to line up perfectly for us, in my opinion, and the opinion of other people, for us to take the majority. … I certainly know we're going to win a lot of seats.”
Ball says House candidates will face a challenge in getting their message out this year, thanks to heavy ad spending in the U.S. Senate race. Their campaigns are relying on volunteers going door to door.
“We're going to win this at the doors, not on television, obviously, because I think we're going to kind of be drowned out by some statewide races,” Ball said.
Incumbency advantage could help GOP hold on
Another hurdle for Democrats is incumbency. Only three of the 20 GOP-held districts that the Locke Foundation has rated as a “toss-up” or “lean Republican” don’t have incumbents seeking re-election.
Republican strategist Stephen Wiley, of the consulting firm Fulcrum, is a former caucus director running House GOP campaigns. He says the incumbents will be hard to beat even in a blue wave year.
“They've been vetted by voters over the course of several cycles,” he said. “They've got a higher floor of name ID and positive name association than some of these Democratic candidate challengers.”
And Wiley notes that big midterm waves predicted in previous years fizzled a bit by November.
“You never want to say never, but I think it would be highly unlikely for either the House or the Senate in North Carolina to flip this cycle,” he said.
Another longtime Republican strategist, Paul Shumaker, says GOP state legislators will need to focus their campaigns on their work in North Carolina – not the national issues driving other races.
“They have to localize their issues around their campaigns – they can't let it become nationalized,” he said.
Flipping the N.C. Senate is harder for Democrats
While Jackson from the John Locke Foundation thinks the House is in play, he thinks Republicans are unlikely to lose the Senate thanks to more aggressive gerrymandering in those districts.
“Two of the seats on the list of competitive seats are (Sens.) Buck Newton and Danny Britt,” Jackson said. “They're not going to lose. I just don't see them doing that.”
Those two Republican senators represent rural districts in eastern North Carolina that have become more conservative. Jackson calls them “the Republican firewall, so if one or both of them goes down, it's going to be a really long night for Republicans.”
And some state House districts in the east could also prove challenging for Democrats. Claire Kempner is trying to unseat Republican Rep. Tim Reeder in rural Pitt County outside of Greenville. She came about 5,000 votes short of beating him in 2024.
“Democrats don't win a majority by only focusing on the easiest districts,” she said. “That happens when we compete everywhere.”
Kempner says she’s talking to voters across the political spectrum who are concerned about public school funding and the legislature’s failure to pass a budget on time.
That’s part of the reason Republican incumbents want to get the budget done before they hit the campaign trail. “The number of people who are now understanding that the Republicans have failed to pass a budget has actually been surprising to me,” Kempner said. “The state legislature's most important job is to pass a budget, and they haven't passed one since 2023.”
Legislative leaders said this week that they remain on track to pass a budget as soon as the week of June 15.
Any major victories for Democrats this year could be short-lived: With districts drawn to favor Republicans, the GOP could win back any seats (or majorities) it loses this year in the 2028 or 2030 election cycles – both of which will occur prior to the next round of redistricting.
Where could Democrats win House seats?
The John Locke Foundation’s “Civitas Partisan Index” rates legislative districts based on past election data. This year, 20 House seats held by Republicans are rated either “toss up” or “lean Republican” – potentially giving Democrats a shot at victory in a wave year.
Here are the districts, listed in order from most competitive to most difficult for Democrats:
- District 105 (southeastern Mecklenburg): Democrat-turned-Republican Rep. Tricia Cotham faces Ken McCool, the former mayor pro tem of Matthews.
- District 35 (northern Wake): Rep. Mike Schietzelt faces attorney Evonne Hopkins.
- District 37 (southern Wake): Rep. Erin Paré faces Winn Decker, an education policy consultant.
- District 25 (Nash): Rep. Allen Chesser faces Lorenza Wilkins, an administrator at the Inter-Faith Food Shuttle.
- District 73 (Cabarrus): Rep. Jonathan Almond faces Thomas Monks, a marketing professional. Monks replaced a Democratic candidate who died unexpectedly in January.
- District 63 (Alamance): Republican Ryan Moffitt, an attorney, faces Democrat Ian Baltutis, a Burlington city councilman and former mayor. Baltutis replaced a Democratic candidate who dropped out; incumbent Republican Rep. Stephen Ross isn’t running.
- District 62 (Guilford): Rep. John Blust faces Shelly Headen, an auditor who manages a garage door business.
- District 64 (Alamance): Rep. Dennis Riddell faces LeVon Barnes, a coach and athletic director from Mebane.
- District 5 (Camden, Gates, Hertford and Pasquotank): Rep. Bill Ward faces Sam Davis III, a Pasquotank County commissioner.
- District 59 (eastern and southern Guilford): Rep. Alan Branson faces Elma Hairston, a motivational speaker, author and former president of the High Point NAACP.
- District 82 (Cabarrus): Rep. Brian Echevarria faces Chris Bishopp, an air traffic controller and Navy veteran.
- District 74 (western Forsyth): Rep. Jeff Zenger faces Amy Taylor North, a small business owner and Army veteran.
- District 9 (Pitt): Rep. Tim Reeder faces Claire Kempner, who ran for the seat in 2024.
- District 12 (Lenoir, Greene and Jones): Rep. Chris Humphrey faces Don Hardy, the former mayor of Kinston.
- District 119 (Jackson, Swain, Transylvania): Rep. Anna Ferguson, recently appointed after the death of Rep. Mike Clampitt, faces Mark Burrows, the former planning and economic development director for Transylvania County.
- District 20 (New Hanover): Republican Dane Scalise, a New Hanover County Commissioner, faces Democrat Tim Merrick, a New Hanover County school board member, for the seat being vacated by Rep. Ted Davis.
- District 7 (Franklin, Vance): Republican Cory Thornton, the owner of a property management company, faces Democrat Mark Speed, a Franklin County commissioner, for the seat being vacated by Rep. Matthew Winslow.
- District 43 (Cumberland): Rep. Diane Wheatley faces Janene Ackles, a grant writing consultant for nonprofits.
- District 26 (Johnston): Rep. Donna White faces L'Bertrice Solomon, the chief public health officer for the group Docs On Da Block.
- District 75 (Forsyth): Rep. Donny Lambeth faces Jen Wiles, a healthcare worker.
