AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
And tomorrow, the capital will play host to that all-important meeting on Ukraine. For a sense of how it might unfold, we're joined now by Sam Greene. He's a professor of Russian politics at King's College, London. Welcome to the show.
SAM GREENE: Thank you for having me on.
RASCOE: So what will President Zelenskyy want from tomorrow's talks with President Trump?
GREENE: Well, it looks like he's got the first thing that he really wants, which is not to be alone in the room. As Franco mentioned, the memory in everybody's mind will be fresh of what happened earlier this year. He will want to really see the solidarity from the European side, not just that they are with - sorry - that they are there with him but that they are prepared to put European muscle behind some kind of a deal. He will really want to know how serious Trump is and really how serious Putin is about allowing some kind of a reassurance force or a peacekeeping force, including Europeans and potentially Americans on the ground and in the skies over Ukraine, to create a real deterrence against renewed Russian aggression.
RASCOE: Well, what concessions do you think Ukraine may be prepared to make to reach a peace deal?
GREENE: Well, look, the Ukrainians have been clear that they need a ceasefire before they can get to a peace deal. If what the Russians and, at this point, the Americans are asking the Ukrainians to consider is a ceding of territory, a formal recognition on some level of Russian control over the territory it has occupied through the course of this war, they will need to go through a political process to do that, right? It would be difficult in any case to get support for it, but it requires a referendum. That's something that can only happen after the fighting stops and martial law can be lifted, and there can be a Democratic campaign on that referendum. So there are things that have to happen before they can even talk about those sorts of concessions.
RASCOE: Well, what do you think Europe's role might be in any deal that they're trying to reach?
GREENE: Well, that really depends on how hard the Trump administration is prepared to push to get the deal that it sees now that it has from Trump, right? The question that Europeans have been grappling with really since the beginning of this administration is, will they be allowed to create the security that they feel that they need not just for the Ukrainians but for themselves? This is a war on the European continent that they worry could expand if Russia is not deterred. So the question is, are they simply filling the gaps from a U.S. drawdown in support for Ukraine, or will they actually face active resistance? So this is, I think, a mission to, again, feel out where Trump is on this, what he is willing to do, and again, how real this promise is - or potential promise is - to allow the U.S. and NATO, as such, to participate in creating security for Ukraine.
RASCOE: How big a deal is it that Trump seems to be backing away from the call for a ceasefire and kind of aligning with Russia on looking for just a peace deal?
GREENE: Well, it will feel quite significant, obviously, to the Ukrainians and the Europeans. I think we've thought for a long time this is probably where Trump was headed. He wants an end to this war as quickly as possible in a format that would allow him to get back to some kind of a normalized relationship with Russia. I think he fundamentally sees this war as a nuisance. So anything that could end it permanently and then allow for the drawdown of sanctions and the broader normalization of relations, I think, is - you know, fits his strategy. He likely will continue to find, as he has over the last seven months, that that is much easier said than done.
RASCOE: Well, how do you think that President Putin views this moment?
GREENE: I think Putin is probably quietly ecstatic. I mean, he was very happy to get the summit in Anchorage. It was exactly what he wanted. It got him out of Trump's doghouse after about a month and a half of consistent frustration. It got him out of the diplomatic isolation that he had been in, and it happened without the Ukrainians and the Europeans in the room. It also seems to have maneuvered Trump into agreeing with the plan that Putin has been talking about all along and one that really does not require much in the way of concessions, if any, from the Russian side. So what he will be looking for is how hard now will Trump push? Will the commitment that may have been made quietly in Anchorage - will that turn into leverage exerted by Trump over America's allies in Europe and over the Ukrainians?
RASCOE: So what do you ultimately think may come out of this? I mean, do you think we're close to reaching some sort of agreement?
GREENE: It's really hard to know. There's nothing on the - there's nothing visible at the moment that suggests that we are closer than we have been in the past, with the one exception of this idea that Putin may have acquiesced to the idea of Europeans and Americans on the ground providing security for Ukraine. That is not the same thing as a peace deal, but it is the kind of thing that could make it possible for the Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire. What they want to be reassured of is that Russia will not easily be able to breach this ceasefire if it emerges, as they have been able to do in the past.
RASCOE: That's Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics and also director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis. Thank you so much for being with us.
GREENE: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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