North Carolina will once again be a major player in November's presidential election, one of a handful of swing states that may very well determine the outcome. The changing demography and hyper-partisan politics here reflect the entire country's growing polarization and the urban versus rural divide.
But this year, with the balance of power in the Senate at stake as well as the presidency, the state has become an even more crucial bellwether. Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer has been studying the evolution of North Carolina politics for decades. He spoke with WFDD's David Ford.
Interview Highlights
On how NC became a battleground state:
You know, if you go back to 2004, George W. Bush, the Republican running for reelection, won the state by 13 percentage points. Nobody would consider North Carolina a competitive state in that election. At the same time, in the same election, Democratic gubernatorial incumbent Mike Easley ran for reelection and won by 13 percentage points. So, North Carolina had in the early 2000s this split political personality. We would split tickets left and right. 2008 and 2010 elections just fundamentally shifted this state into much more of a nationalized electorate in a very polarized electorate. So, my gut and analysis tends to tell me 90 percent of North Carolinians are voting their party affiliation. That less-than-ten percent of persuadable voters is really kind of the battle. But if you are a candidate and you elevate the number of your base voters, you don't have to worry necessarily about those potential persuadable or swing voters. So, North Carolina has basically become a kind of microcosm or mirror of national dynamics. And if you look at the polling averages, North Carolina is the tightest competitive state out there, more than Florida at this point in time.
On NC Senator Tom Tillis and how he positions himself in this race:
Well, I think certainly, Senator Tillis has recognized that his fortunes are tied to the president's. And I think he has been very supportive of the president since he wrote that op ed piece over a year ago criticizing the president. And he has since changed his tune. I think he is very much a loyal Republican and a loyal Trump supporter at this point. The question is, is that base of loyal Trump supporters large enough to carry him to victory? In looking at both President Trump in this state and senator Tillis' numbers, Senator Tillis' numbers tend to lag a few points behind where President Trump has been polling. So, yes, he is connected to the president, but he's not making that connection necessarily to the loyal Republican Trump voter.
On the importance to both parties of a North Carolina win:
I think all roads to controlling the U.S. Senate does come through North Carolina. I mean, there are some wildcards out there. There's Iowa. There's Montana. There's Alabama. But whoever wins North Carolina's Senate seat, that party will likely be either in control or potentially tied in the U.S. Senate. You know, we talk about the republican base in the south, and for presidential democratic candidates if they can crack through the solid republican south, peel off Virginia, peel off Florida, peel off North Carolina, it is a very difficult road to 270 electoral votes for the republicans if those three southern states flip to blue. So, it's more important for Trump and the republicans to have North Carolina in the win column than it is necessarily for Biden to have it in his win column. But if Biden has it in his win column, it is an uphill battle to get to 270 for president Trump.