Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump retains a strong lead over party rivals in the latest Elon University poll of North Carolina voters. But the business mogul fares worse when it comes to the general election.
Trump leads Sen. Ted Cruz by nine points among Republican voters here, and leads Sen. Marco Rubio by 12 points.
Among Democratic voters, Sen. Bernie Sanders is closing the gap with frontrunner Hillary Clinton. Only a few months ago, Clinton led Sanders by 30 points. Now that lead is down to ten.
Elon Poll director Kenneth Fernandez says in hypothetical general election matchups, North Carolinians favor either Democrat if Trump is the GOP nominee. But both Clinton and Sanders lose if Republicans nominate Rubio.
“We sort of found that in November, too, Rubio seems to get a lot of support from a few crossover Democrats, but more independents,” Fernandez said. “And again, I think that's what a lot of people have said, that to win a general election, you need a more established, moderate candidate.”
Voters won't have to wait long to see how things shake out though. North Carolina's presidential primary takes place March 15th.
The survey also asked respondents about what President Barack Obama should do in the wake of the death of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.
More than 57 percent of residents said the president should nominate a candidate now, while about 35 percent want the next president to make the nomination.
Scalia's death on Feb. 13th has sharpened the focus on the presidential duty of naming Supreme Court justices.
Fernandez says his team was surprised by the results of this question. While he says many political die-hards have already staked out their positions, regular citizens may see a swift nomination as more of a practical matter.
“The average non-politico or non-ideologue probably sees the vacancy and says this needs to be filled, especially when you're going to have a 4-4 divide and important decisions need to be made,” Fernandez said.
While the majority of North Carolina Democrats and Independents favor an immediate nomination, the majority of state Republicans want to wait.
President Obama has said he will nominate a candidate in due time, which leaders in the U.S. Senate have said they will block.