For the second straight election, there are three candidates vying for attention from voters in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District.
Incumbent U.S. Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat, and repeat challenger Laurie Buckhout, a Republican, have received most of the attention in a race that has already become the most expensive in U.S. House of Representatives history.
But in a district that could be decided by narrow margins, some observers believe it is also worth paying attention to the repeat third-party candidate, Libertarian Tom Bailey.
In 2024, Davis defeated Buckhout by about 6,300 votes. Bailey received nearly 10,000 votes, more than the margin between the two major party candidates.
Chris Cooper, a close observer of North Carolina politics and director of Western Carolina University's Haire Institute for Public Policy, said, "He could have decided the outcome of the race."
Cooper cautioned that a vote cast for Bailey wouldn't necessarily have gone to Buckhout if he hadn't been in the 2024 race, but also acknowledged that Libertarian voters tend to lean conservative.
"It is a nice out for folks who lean right, particularly on economic issues, who may not agree with the Republicans on other issues to be able to show up, cast a vote, get somebody who better matches their ideology than they might perceive the Republican candidate doing," Cooper said.
Bailey, a Vietnam War veteran who lives in Guilford County, has posted extensively on social media decrying the United States' military efforts, including the ongoing conflict with Iran, as well as the growing national debt.
"The corporate sponsored Dems and (Republicans) are partners in a scam to create the illusion of choice while offering none. For the last 46 years no matter which was in power they have consistently delivered more war debt and more erosion of personal liberty," Bailey wrote in a Facebook message.
Over the past year, he has also made several posts decrying the methods used by immigration enforcement officers under the Trump Administration, including the killings of a pair of American citizens in Minneapolis.
Bailey is clear in his social media posts that he does not view his candidacy in the First Congressional District as pulling from one party or the other, particularly because there are often more non-voters than voters.
In an appearance on the Political Freedom Fighters podcast earlier this year, Bailey said, "Your vote is about more than just picking the winner. It's not like a horse race, you don't get a reward."
An election, Bailey went on to say, is the one opportunity that people have to give the government instructions.
Ads against, for Bailey
It is clear that Republicans in the 1st Congressional District are also weighing Bailey's potential impact on the race. Earlier this year, the First District Republican Party paid for a digital ad that featured both Bailey and Davis.
The ad pointed to a social media re-post from Bailey, saying that he had helped spread the conspiracy theory that the United States government helped create the terrorist group ISIS.
Mary Helen Pelt Warren, the chairwoman of the First District Republican Party, called Bailey "a spoiler candidate" and noted that he lives several hours away from Eastern North Carolina's First Congressional District. Bailey, Pelt Warren said in an interview, had no intention of serving in Congress or of serving the First Congressional District.
"Not all Americans vote, but I do think they would be upset that somebody was trying to pose as a realistic candidate when they're not," Pelt Warren said in an interview.
Bailey did not respond to an interview request for this story.
The Buckhout campaign's stance on Bailey is similar to the First District Republican Party's.
"Make no mistake: a vote for the third-party candidate is a vote for Speaker Hakeem Jeffries. Colonel Laurie Buckhout is the common-sense conservative who will put eastern North Carolina families first, and no amount of deception from Don Davis’s allies will fool the voters here," Stephen Gallagher, a Buckhout spokesman, wrote in an email.
A dark money group called the American Forge Coalition has also been running an ad touting Bailey's candidacy, The News & Observer recently reported. The group has run ads in other states like Florida and Minnesota, attacking Republican candidates from the right and promoting third-party candidacies.
Davis, the incumbent, responded to questions about Bailey by quickly turning attention back to affordability and health care.
"Third-party candidates should have an opportunity to have their voices heard like anyone else. My focus has been, regardless of political party, to show up, listen, and work for those you are elected to represent," Davis wrote in a statement.
How could Bailey factor in Tuesday?
The 1st Congressional District is widely expected to be one of the closest races in the country, potentially playing a pivotal role in deciding which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.
Republicans have targeted the district, including redrawing its boundaries last year to give the party's candidate a better chance at winning it amid a spate of mid-decade gerrymandering.
Still, Cooper, the Western Carolina professor, acknowledged there's a chance Bailey could be "the critical factor" in the race. Bailey, Cooper said, could offer an option to voters who believe in small government or conservative economic policies but do not want to vote for a Trump-aligned candidate like Buckhout.
Of Bailey, Cooper said, "This is not somebody who's exactly spent a lot of time campaigning or getting his name out, but he does have that 'L' next to his name. A small number of folks are going to be persuaded by that, but perhaps in an election this close, a small number could be the critical number."
