STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Let's talk now with Jim Messina, who managed former President Barack Obama's reelection campaign in 2012, and he's on the line. Mr. Messina, welcome back.
JIM MESSINA: Thanks for being - I'm happy to be here.
INSKEEP: So Saige Miller just said that some races seem to keep moving farther toward the left. I would think this would be the moment of the campaign where the political pros are saying these races are going to tighten. But she's saying the opposite. Do you think Democrats are running away with it?
MESSINA: It feels like that on the ground, Steve. It does when you look at the daily stuff. And, you know, we've all had our hearts as Democrats broken by polling, so you can't believe polling. But when you look at the early vote numbers, which is what I really look at, boy, it looks good out there for the Democrats in the final days.
INSKEEP: What is it that looks good there?
MESSINA: Well, we've already had 44.7 million people vote early as of last night.
INSKEEP: Wow.
MESSINA: There was only a total of 46 million who voted in the entire 2022 early vote period. So that's just an explosion of numbers. And when you look at some of the biggest races in America, you and I are focused on Texas, where it looks like a nail-biter race. Democrats have not won Texas since 1994, my senior year in college. And I'm now a member of the AARP, Steve...
INSKEEP: (Laughter).
MESSINA: ...So it has been a while. But in Texas, 27% of folks who voted - have already voted at this time are Latino. That number - in 2024, that number was 20%. And among people who voted already, who didn't even vote in 2024, half of them are Latino. And so that just shows you a real explosion of early vote, and it shows you a Democratic base that looks very, very fired up.
INSKEEP: And I guess we should emphasize we don't know how these people voted, but when you look at who voted and the fact that they are voting early, you presume that is a big Democratic vote.
MESSINA: Well, then you match it to the voter file that campaigns maintain...
INSKEEP: Ah.
MESSINA: ...And voter files on both sides of the aisle have every voter in America ranked from 1 to 100 on whether or not they're going to support them. And so you can be pretty sure on how these people are likely going to vote. You can't be exactly sure, but you can be pretty statistically sure. And so if you're the Talarico campaign in Texas or you're the Ossoff campaign in Georgia, you really like the early vote numbers.
INSKEEP: We have a report on today's MORNING EDITION about Black voters turning out in larger numbers, in many cases, because of Republican-led redistricting, which Black voters saw as a tactic to disenfranchise them. So they're turning up in bigger numbers. Where could that make a difference for Democrats?
MESSINA: In places like Georgia, in places like South Carolina. The fact that we're talking about South Carolina in a Senate race is amazing, Steve. But, you know, Georgia is a great example. Black voters made up more than 36% of early voters, more than 6% more than 2024. And that's a sign of real engagement. You know, the campaigns need to build on it in these final days, but, you know, getting out your vote, especially in the communities of color, are really, really important for campaigns in these final days.
INSKEEP: Now, with that said, Mr. Messina, I looked up an old Saturday Night Live sketch from an earlier midterm election in which Democrats look at the camera and smile about their coming midterm victory, but their hands are shaking and they're obviously extremely stressed. Does this moment feel that way at all to you?
MESSINA: Yeah, of course. We're Democrats, so we could screw up free beer on a Friday night.
INSKEEP: (Laughter).
MESSINA: And we have before. So, yes, you can take absolutely nothing for granted. That's what you're doing in these final days. You're taking nothing for granted. And the most important thing is to make sure your base votes. And so in these final days, that's why Obama's on the trail. That's why you have a whole bunch of different people on the trail just urging people to vote. There are literally tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of people listening right now who have on their kitchen table a ballot they haven't returned, and the best way to get them to return it is a personal connection - a door knock, a phone call from someone they know. And so that's what Democrats are doing these final days, Steve.
INSKEEP: What could still go wrong in your mind?
MESSINA: Well, there's always the last-minute things you talked about on the run-up here about what's happening in Alaska. You never know. You know, in all these Senate races, like, Democrats are competing in states where Donald Trump has won in the last election by over 10 points. And so that is a huge mountain to climb.
INSKEEP: Yeah.
MESSINA: And so the question is, can they get over the line? Yes, they're really tied in a bunch of these races, but these are tough races - like Ohio, like Alaska, like Iowa - the Democrats haven't won since Barack Obama won them in 2012.
INSKEEP: So there's room for sort of residual Republican strength to come through in the end?
MESSINA: Yeah, that's right. We're competing in places that are traditionally Republican.
INSKEEP: Jim Messina, thanks so much for your insights. Really appreciate it.
MESSINA: My pleasure. Have a good day.
INSKEEP: You too. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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