Majority of Americans say it was wrong for the Supreme Court to overturn Roe
A majority of Americans say they oppose the Supreme Court's decision a year ago to overturn Roe v. Wade, want to see affirmative-action programs in college admissions continue and have little confidence in this current court, the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
The survey of 1,327 adults, conducted from June 12 through 14, also explored the thorny issue of gender-identity politics, finding that most people think gender is determined by birth. They don't want to completely limit the ability for people to have access to gender transition-related health care, but there are sharp divides about when that care should be available.
Warning signs continue for Republicans on abortion rights
The issue of abortion rights played a significant role in the 2022 midterm elections, helping Democrats, and it figures to be a factor in the upcoming presidential election as well.
- 57% oppose the court's overturning of Roe, which guaranteed the right to an abortion in this country. There was, of course, a sharp partisan divide with three-quarters of Democrats and almost 6-in-10 independents against it, but two-thirds of Republicans in favor.
- Notably, in this survey, 66% of women who live in small cities and suburbs, as well as 63% of independent women opposed the decision. Those are key swing groups.
Majority wants affirmative action programs to continue
- Similarly to Roe, 57% also say they think affirmative action programs in hiring, promoting and college admissions should be continued. More than three-quarters of Democrats said so, but almost 6-in-10 Republicans disagreed.
- Independents were split, 50%-46% in favor of keeping affirmative action programs.
- There was a racial divide with 66% of nonwhites saying they want the programs to continue, but a majority (52%) of whites also said so.
- There was a major divide by age — with those under 45 almost 20 points more likely to say they want the programs to continue than those older than 45 (67% to 48%).
- There was also a big gender divide, especially in small towns and suburbs. Overall, by a 62%-to-50% margin, women were more likely than men to say these programs should continue. In small cities and suburbs, the split was 62%-to-48%.
Lack of confidence in conservative-majority court
- By a 59%-to-39% margin, respondents said they have very much or no confidence at all in the Supreme Court.
- A majority of Republicans do have confidence (53%), but 62% of independents and 61% of women who live in small cities and suburbs do not.
Majority says gender is defined by birth
Conservatives continue to use gender-identity politics as a culture-war issue, and they have appeared to make inroads with their messaging, the survey found.
- By a 61%-to-36% margin, respondents said the only way to define male and female in society is by the sex listed on a person's original birth certificate.
- There has been a 16-point net change in favor of saying the only definition is by birth certificate since Marist asked the question in May 2022. (Then it was 51%-42%.)
- There is a huge political divide. Nearly 9-in-10 Republicans and 6-in-10 independents hold these views, but almost 6-in-10 Democrats said that definition is out of date and needs to be updated to include identity.
Divide over access to gender transition-related health care
- The plurality of respondents (45%) said only adults 18 or older should have access to gender transition-related health care. That includes majorities of Republicans and independents.
- Another 31% said it should be available to those 18 or older and those under 18 with parental consent. A slim majority of Democrats agreed with this. Another 31% of Democrats said it should only be available to adults.
- A quarter said no one, regardless of age, should. Republican women were the most likely to say this (43%).
The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. There are 1,212 registered voters in the survey and when they are referenced, there is a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
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Transcript
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll takes the nation's temperature on an array of social issues, from abortion rights and affirmative action to how Americans feel about gender identity.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
This poll comes nearly a year after a Supreme Court ruling fundamentally changed abortion rights in this country.
MARTIN: NPR senior political editor Domenico Montanaro is here with us now to tell us more. Good morning, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey, Michel.
MARTIN: So this Saturday marks a year since the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision on abortion. What does the poll tell us about how people are feeling about that decision now?
MONTANARO: Well, the survey interviewed more than 1,300 adults, found a majority, 57%, said that they were against the court's decision. You know, three-quarters of Democrats said that, almost 6 in 10 independents did. But two-thirds of Republicans are in favor of it. We're seeing this dynamic play out on the campaign trail because of that. You know, in the Republican primary, candidates are really racing to the right, looking to be the most conservative on abortion. But it's putting them on the wrong side of this issue in a general election.
And this has been a pretty salient and motivating issue, as we saw in the 2022 midterm elections, especially true for some key swing voters. You know, for example, two-thirds of women who live in small cities and suburbs and independent women oppose the decision. That's been pretty consistent with what we've seen in the past year since the Dobbs decision.
MARTIN: This court has a couple of weeks to go in this current term. And there are a number of controversial items where they are still set to weigh in. One of those is affirmative action. What did the poll tell us about that?
MONTANARO: Yeah, this is really interesting because a majority here also say that they want to see affirmative action programs continued in hiring, promoting and in college admissions. Of course, there's a sharp partisan divide. More than three-quarters of Democrats want these programs to continue, but roughly 6 in 10 Republicans do not. Independents were split pretty much down the middle. We also saw clear differences by race, age and gender. Nonwhites, those under 45 and women were far more likely to say that they want to see these programs continue.
And there must be some disagreements around kitchen tables in the suburbs on this because we found that women who live there were 14 points more likely to be in favor of these programs than the men who do. More broadly, these kinds of numbers tell you why people continue to have little confidence in this conservative-majority court. It's out of step with the majority of the population on a number of issues, certainly true on abortion. We'll see what happens on affirmative action.
MARTIN: So let's talk about gender identity now, because that's one of those areas that has really become this political lightning rod. So what did the survey tell us about that?
MONTANARO: Yeah, 61% of respondents said that they believe that the only way to define male and female is by the sex listed on a person's original birth certificate. Thirty-five percent said that that definition is out of date and needs to be updated to include how people identify. There is a huge political divide here. Nine in 10 Republicans and 6 in 10 independents said gender is determined by birth. Six in 10 Democrats said that that's out of date. The results clearly show Republican messaging on this has had a pretty big effect. Back in May of last year, the split was just 51-42 in favor of gender being defined by birth. So we're talking about a 16-point net change here. Huge split, huge divide and playing out on the campaign trail.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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