Republicans' redistricting effort to pick up a northeastern North Carolina U.S. House of Representatives seat appears poised to cost them both seats after counties finished counting provisional ballots on Tuesday.

U.S. Rep. Greg Murphy, R-N.C. 3, entered the day with a 233-vote lead over Democratic challenger Raymond Smith, a former state legislator. With all provisional ballots counted across the district, Smith led by 293 votes.

North Carolina's Fifth Congressional District was also closely watched on Tuesday, with Democratic challenger Chuck Hubbard entering the day with a 99-vote lead over 11-term GOP incumbent Rep. Virginia Foxx.

Foxx took the lead for a time Tuesday afternoon, only to fall behind again when Guilford and Watauga counties reported ballots that gave Hubbard a net gain of 385 votes.

With all provisional ballots counted, Hubbard holds a lead of 325 votes.

Entering this year's election cycle, Republicans held 10 of North Carolina's 14 U.S. House of Representatives seats. Many of those were widely considered to be safe for Republican incumbents due to districts that lawmakers crafted to favor the GOP.

Despite that gerrymandering, Democrats are poised to more than reverse the state's Congressional delegation breakdown. They hold leads in 11 of the state's 14 Congressional districts.

"From the beginning we have been committed to ensuring that every legal vote in North Carolina is counted. We know that once that process has taken place, Dr. Raymond Smith and Chuck Hubbard will have the votes to send them to Congress," Madison Andrus of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, wrote in a statement after provisional ballots were counted Tuesday.

The results are not yet final. Military and overseas ballots can trickle in to county boards of elections until 5 p.m. Thursday.

Counties will conduct their canvasses of election results on Friday.

Both races will likely be within the 1% margin that would allow the trailing candidate to request a recount. For Congressional races like these, that request must be submitted to the State Board of Elections by noon on Tuesday, Nov. 17.

The State Board of Elections is scheduled to certify races that span multiple counties, such as both U.S. House races, on Nov. 24.

A new leader in NC-3

Heading into Tuesday, incumbent Republican Murphy led Democratic challenger Smith by 233 votes in eastern North Carolina's Third Congressional District.

In a statement early last Wednesday morning, Murphy went as far as to declare victory, writing, "This was a tough-fought race, and Eastern North Carolinians made their voices heard loud and clear."

But just hours later, elections experts were warning that nobody should be declaring victory. In a social media post last Wednesday, VoteHub's Zachary Donnini identified a Democratic lead in provisional ballots that were likely to be counted.

"NC-03 is far from over," Donnini wrote.

The Third Congressional District that Murphy is representing right now is largely not the one to which he's seeking re-election.

Republicans in the General Assembly redrew the First and Third Congressional Districts as part of last year's mid-decade redistricting war, moving Republican-leaning counties out of Murphy's Third District and into the First Congressional District.

It was part of an effort to unseat Rep. Don Davis, an incumbent Democrat who defeated Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout for the second consecutive election last week.

In a Facebook message originally reported by conservative blog The Daily Haymaker, Buckhout wrote that Murphy "enabled" Davis' victory.

"He had no problem telling me last cycle that he and Don Davis were best friends so he cannot support me. They have a deal that goes back to Butterfield and Jones. I regard him as one of the biggest traitors in America," Buckhout wrote.

With most ballots counted, both Buckhout and Murphy appear poised to lose districts that voted heavily for President Donald Trump in 2024, with Murphy's N.C. 3 favoring the Republican candidate in that election by about 13.6% and Davis' N.C. 1 favoring Trump by 11.6%.

An 11-term incumbent poised to be ousted

Foxx first won election to U.S. Congress in 2004 and has steadily risen in Republican ranks since then. Right now, she chairs the House of Representatives' Rules Committee, a powerful chairmanship that lets her decide whether a bill reaches the House floor or not.

Foxx also has a long history of anti-LGBT statements and legislation, including referring to the 1998 murder of gay man Matthew Shepherd as a "hoax" during a debate on the House floor and releasing a statement in opposition to the U.S. Supreme Court's decision effectively legalizing gay marriage nationwide in 2015's Obergefell v. Hodges.

Hubbard, a former Wilkes County newspaper reporter and associate publisher, spoke about why that part of Foxx's record is important to him in a viral clip.

His daughter, Meredith, is a lesbian. And the day after Donald Trump was first elected president in 2016, Hubbard said, she called him to say, "Dad, every bit of progress we've ever made is gonna be taken away from us. These people hate me ... and they're coming after me, and they're coming after my job."

Hubbard told the story in response to a question about which issue that affects the district is closest to his heart.

"That's about as important as it gets, so I will do whatever, whenever, however I can to protect the LGBTQ community and make sure that they're not bullied," Hubbard said in the clip.

He continued, "You know, everybody — everybody — deserves to be able to live their lives the way they want to."