The Oscars Are Coming, With 1 Big Hit And Few Close Contests

Transcript

AUDIE CORNISH, HOST:

If you're sick of Hollywood awards shows, the good news is the season is almost over. It'll be done Sunday night after the 87th Academy Awards ceremony and here are the eight best picture nominees, in less than 40 seconds.

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "THE IMITATION GAME")

BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH: (As Alan Turing) I like solving problems, and enigma is the most difficult problem in the world.

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "BOYHOOD")

ELLAR COLTRANE: (As Mason) Dad, there's no like, real magic in the world, right?

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "SELMA")

DAVID OYELOWO: (As Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.) I am appealing to men and women of God and good will everywhere.

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL")

RALPH FIENNES: (As M. Gustave) I admit you appear to be suffering a more acute attack on this occasion, but truly, modestly - oh, dear God, what have you done to your fingernails?

TILDA SWINTON: (As Madame D.) I beg your pardon?

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "WHIPLASH")

J.K. SIMMONS: (As Terence Fletcher) Why don't you suppose I just hurl the chair at your head, Neiman?

MILES TELLER: (As Andrew Neiman) I don't know.

SIMMONS: (As Terence Fletcher) Sure you do.

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING")

EDDIE REDMAYNE: (As Stephen Hawking) What if I revert the process all the back to see what happened at the beginning of time itself?

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "AMERICAN SNIPER")

BRADLEY COOPER: (As Chris Kyle) The thing that haunts me are all the guys that I couldn't save.

(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "BIRDMAN")

MICHAEL KEATON: (As Riggan) You're Birdman. You are a god.

CORNISH: And that was "Birdman," "American Sniper," "The Theory Of Everything," "Whiplash," "The Grand Budapest Hotel," "Selma," "Boyhood" and "The Imitation Game." And we have our movie mavens here in the studio for a pre-Oscar chat. Linda Holmes, host of NPR's pop-culture blog, Monkey See.

Hey there, Linda.

LINDA HOLMES, BYLINE: Hello.

CORNISH: And Bob Mondello.

Hey there, Bob.

BOB MONDELLO, BYLINE: It's good to be here.

CORNISH: All right. So last year, the big contest was between "Gravity" and "12 Years A Slave" and it felt like a race, right? Does it feel like that this year, or is this thing wide open?

MONDELLO: It's become a race just in the last like, week and half because the guilds have all weighed in. Initially it looked like it was "Boyhood's" race to lose. They were going to do spectacularly and instead, "Birdman" has come out of nowhere and it's been winning all of the awards from the guilds, the Screen Actors Guild, and other producers and all those kinds of things. And as a result, now everybody's saying that "Birdman" is likely to win.

CORNISH: And of course everybody, meaning the critics also are way into "Birdman," way into "Boyhood," but are these movies that actually have broader appeal, Linda?

HOLMES: Well, I think that "Birdman" does have special appeal in Hollywood, given that it is essentially a movie about how hard it is to be an actor and a director.

CORNISH: They love making movies about themselves.

HOLMES: And there is a long history of kind of the salute to the deeply thoughtful artist, and I think this movie falls into that category, as does "Whiplash" a little bit, but less dramatically so. But all these movies have made modest amounts of money other than "American Sniper," which has now made 300-some million dollars domestically - you know, has made more money I think than maybe all the rest of these put together.

MONDELLO: All of them put together, yeah.

CORNISH: And been talked about, right?

MONDELLO: Right. It's become this sort of cultural juggernaut now. And as a result of that, there is a whole audience that's going to watch the Oscars with a rooting interest in it, which they probably wouldn't have had if it had just been the smaller pictures. I'm going to guess - I - this is only a guess, obviously, but I'm going to guess they're going to be disappointed because I think it's unlikely that "American Sniper" will take the prize. But that's sort of received wisdom from the industry. And who knows?

CORNISH: Yeah received wisdom - right? - always gets bumped by the upset which is what I live for, and my favorite term, the dark horse. Who are the potential upsets this year, Linda?

HOLMES: You know, this is a year when there really seemed to be clear favorites in every county. It's really tough to find dark horses this year.

CORNISH: Oh, that's so boring.

HOLMES: It's really boring.

(LAUGHTER)

MONDELLO: All the Oscar - all the ones for performances seem to be sort of locked up. I mean, they've been talking about best actress being Julianne Moore's from the very first award.

CORNISH: That for the movie "Still Alice."

MONDELLO: That's right.

HOLMES: Yes. And I think the closest one that I know of to something where there's still some tension is best actor because best actor, you have certainly had a lot of recognition for Eddie Redmayne, but the other way to go is Michael Keaton...

MONDELLO: Right.

HOLMES: ...In "Birdman" who - Michael Keaton has that advantage of being somebody who's been around for a really long time. He's been in a lot of movies. He's kind of a journeyman actor who...

CORNISH: This is his alleged comeback.

HOLMES: Well, he has one of those careers. It's kind of like what happened with Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler" where people are - it's not the same thing as that.

CORNISH: Yeah.

(LAUGHTER)

CORNISH: He's sitting on a pile of money, I think.

HOLMES: But it has that sense of sort of somebody who is in a new chapter of a long life, and I think that that is something that always has some appeal.

MONDELLO: And he's also doing something in that picture that the others aren't, which is that he's got, like, 15-minute takes...

HOLMES: Yeah.

MONDELLO: ...At times that he has to get through where he's on screen, and there's no cuts, and it's - you know, he has to act in a way that most actors don't have to act in films.

HOLMES: It's a really cool performance.

CORNISH: Now, why does Hollywood care? I mean there are so many awards shows, right?

MONDELLO: (Laughter) That's true.

CORNISH: I mean there are so many opportunities to walk up there and get an award. Do the Oscars still make a difference in a career?

MONDELLO: Well, they probably make a difference in individual careers. What is striking this year - and it's a complete anomaly - is that they make a big difference in box office gross. In a normal year - going back like three decades - the average Oscar nominee gains about 22 percent in terms of gross after the nominations. That's fairly impressive. But this year, "Theory Of Everythin" is up 30 percent, "Birdman" is up 40 percent, "Whiplash" is up 70 percent, "Selma" is up 200 percent, and "American Sniper," which needs an asterisk because it was only in four theaters initially, is up 10,000 percent after the Oscars.

CORNISH: OK.

HOLMES: That's not really the Oscar bump.

(LAUGHTER)

MONDELLO: That's a little something extra. But, you know, it went from four to 4,000 theaters. But the difference this year - I mean when "Selma" earns 200 percent more after the Oscar nominations, you've got to say that the Oscar nominations had something to do with that. You know, a lot of other pictures like "Into The Woods" did better afterwards, but, you know, they weren't nominated for best picture, and they didn't do that much better.

CORNISH: And before I let you go, the broadcast itself - every year we make a big deal out of who's hosting. This year it's Neil Patrick Harris who's like a vet at these shows by now. Are you two expecting a good show, Linda?

HOLMES: Well, he's a very experienced awards show host. It's kind of what he does right now. He's hosted the Tony's to great acclaim. He's hosted the Emmy's. I think he's going to be a solid Oscar host despite the fact that it is one of the worst jobs in the world because the only thing people are doing, particularly if you're already established, is sitting there and waiting to see if you screw up. So - but I...

CORNISH: Yeah. It's not like the Golden Globes where they're drinking while everything's happening, right? (Laughter).

HOLMES: Exactly. Exactly. You're not Tina Fey and Amy Poehler at the Globes. People tend to turn a pretty critical eye, but I think he'll do a good job. I mean it's - what's he going to do now, forget how to host award shows?

MONDELLO: (Laughter) Well - and he's got a number written by the folks who wrote "Frozen," so that's going to help him.

CORNISH: Can't go wrong with that.

MONDELLO: And the Oscar folks are concerned about optics this year and - because there are no persons of color nominated in any of the awards categories for performer, you're going to see an incredibly diverse crowd of presenters and musical guests so that you're going to see Jennifer Hudson and Idris Elba, David Oyelowo, Eddie Murphy - all kinds of people are going to be there, so it's going to look like a very diverse crowd on stage in a way that it doesn't if you look at who's winning.

CORNISH: All right. Finally, what are you guys actually going to be doing on Oscar night? I don't know if you have fancy pro rituals.

(LAUGHTER)

HOLMES: Well, we are going to be doing what a lot of people will be doing...

CORNISH: Drinking games?

HOLMES: (Laughter) Yeah. We will be on Twitter, and we will be tweeting at the hashtag, #nproscars. And I suspect we will see a lot of you there.

CORNISH: And Bob, any tips?

MONDELLO: No. I'm going to be tweeting too, which means I'm going to have to watch.

CORNISH: That's Bob Mondello, our film critic and Linda Holmes, host of NPR's pop-culture blog Monkey See. Thank you both for coming in.

HOLMES: Thanks, Audie.

MONDELLO: Always a pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.